Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 45.599107 50.071092 55.095488 61.225929 68.599585 77.312930 88.594820
2025-06-22 38.983117 44.621230 51.444420 60.531111 72.690381 89.030452 113.944660
2025-06-29 34.917007 40.925799 48.521164 59.199114 74.530865 97.124783 136.394227
2025-07-06 31.651446 37.690541 45.553327 57.036509 74.401655 101.903525 155.359742
2025-07-13 30.569071 37.087339 45.879496 59.338485 81.097806 119.134864 206.748276
2025-07-20 29.438351 36.260139 45.733514 60.827251 86.724478 136.463812 274.166323
2025-07-27 28.409029 35.450694 45.480558 62.044149 92.085542 155.469365 372.318873
2025-08-03 27.140296 34.184593 44.404001 61.734523 94.533790 169.242208 481.465400
2025-08-10 25.782452 32.687630 42.836152 60.378411 94.639425 177.450546 590.974106
2025-08-17 24.533389 31.269249 41.274093 58.842464 94.074777 183.775334 718.597970
2025-08-24 23.509885 30.123680 40.051978 57.766959 94.280119 192.584082 923.210608
2025-08-31 22.595323 29.090078 38.933706 56.756504 94.442436 201.551840 1227.906020
2025-09-07 22.350112 29.079484 39.499450 59.003026 102.783183 245.274267 3880.471040
2025-09-14 21.623429 28.293687 38.742458 58.661393 104.923337 268.607097 17254.594517
2025-09-21 20.789540 27.297960 37.566861 57.369396 104.375914 280.317701 NaN
2025-09-28 19.885551 26.153938 36.077701 55.319282 101.474621 279.097909 NaN
2025-10-05 19.767025 26.232657 36.661078 57.503962 110.575240 352.665663 NaN
2025-10-12 19.522587 26.095731 36.858538 58.915422 118.031877 435.973468 NaN
2025-10-19 19.250176 25.897922 36.931529 60.068175 125.169431 542.983402 NaN
2025-10-26 18.787322 25.368745 36.377997 59.774949 127.559334 617.124300 NaN
2025-11-02 18.215209 24.638866 35.423803 58.490026 126.261880 646.342406 NaN
2025-11-09 17.650891 23.903563 34.427641 57.033444 124.096308 661.477159 NaN
2025-11-16 17.174945 23.299354 33.645655 56.012707 123.333061 700.405882 NaN